February 2, 2022

The Centralized East vs The Decentralized West | The Balaji Series| Episode 6

In the present day, the US as the world superpower has to be able to defend the whole world to maintain its power. If it decides not to engage or loses a battle, its status is lost.
Balaji sees a hypothetical scenario where the CCP and BTC both win, which will lead to the Centralized East vs the Decentralized West.
Centralization provides stability and decentralization provides opportunity.
Technology radically advances during periods of chaos and decentralization. E.g., Wild West, Renaissance.

Host of the What is Money Show, Robert Breedlove (@Breedlove_22) interviews a man who is living in 2050, Balaji Srinivasan. @Balajis on Twitter to see what he is up to.
In Episode 6 of 7, Balaji lays out a future situation where BTC and the CCP win and the US loses its superpower status.

If China invades Taiwan, the US has a decision to make; Support Taiwan or ignore it.
If they ignore or lose, they will cede power to China. China would most likely issue a “Monroe Doctrine” type of policy forcing the US out of local areas. Balaji thinks the US would lose a battle.
Global power has to win everywhere. The regional power has to win once. The US now how to win everywhere.
Foreign military defeat has been a catalyst for internal turmoil. The US is already fighting internally. States and feds are already pulling apart.

US military may protect the US homeland, but if there’s civil division, who does the military defend?
There will be an ideological split, not demographic. Centralist vs Decentralist.
Balaji sees a potential for a Bitcoin seizure bill like executive order 6102 which forbade ownership of gold in the US.
It’ll be centralist vs decentralist. It looks like hacks cyberwar, people with guns eg. Afghanistan.
The West in general is decentralizing because they’re no longer a culture with shared values and aspirations. The internet has allowed people to connect with like-minded people anywhere.

China is the most centralized in a decentralized era which provides stability in the decentralizing world.
China has a potential 10x and they are ruthless. E.g., They banned Btc mining, the great firewall.
Long-term Balaji sees China falls to decentralization, but the new states would have to survive an attack against a Chinese superpower.
The future may be Centralized China vs decentralized developers.

Potential conflicts: Cyberwarfare vs Giant AI. Crypto vs CBDC. Migration and mobility vs. Control of Internal Migration.
Decentralized states would need to be able to defend against China’s colonization.
The decentralized defense will look like spec ops and terrorism combo. Digital gorilla warfare.
Many states will elect colonization

All of this is somewhat a Scifi fictional scenario
There are decades where not much happens and weeks where decades happen.
When there’s totalitarianism, people want freedom. When there’s anarchy, people want leadership
Balaji views India as a rising force and will play an important role in the future. They’re highly patriotic.
“Bitcoin Breaks all incompetent states”

Sovereignty is fuel for innovation. There’s more upside and more downside.
We’ll see organic leaders and cultures. Messy, but we’ll see some amazing cities and network states.
2000’s Tech Companies, 2010’s – Crypto Protocols. 2020’s – Startup Cities. 2030’s – Network States.

bitcoin, china, economy, future, india
Notes By Paul Keating