- In the present day, the US as the world superpower has to be able to defend the whole world to maintain its power. If it decides not to engage or loses a battle, its status is lost.
- Balaji sees a hypothetical scenario where the CCP and BTC both win, which will lead to the Centralized East vs the Decentralized West.
- Centralization provides stability and decentralization provides opportunity.
- Technology radically advances during periods of chaos and decentralization. E.g., Wild West, Renaissance.
- Host of the What is Money Show, Robert Breedlove (@Breedlove_22) interviews a man who is living in 2050, Balaji Srinivasan. @Balajis on Twitter to see what he is up to.
- In Episode 6 of 7, Balaji lays out a future situation where BTC and the CCP win and the US loses its superpower status.
- If China invades Taiwan, the US has a decision to make; Support Taiwan or ignore it.
- If they ignore or lose, they will cede power to China. China would most likely issue a “Monroe Doctrine” type of policy forcing the US out of local areas. Balaji thinks the US would lose a battle.
- Global power has to win everywhere. The regional power has to win once. The US now how to win everywhere.
- Foreign military defeat has been a catalyst for internal turmoil. The US is already fighting internally. States and feds are already pulling apart.
Division in the US
- US military may protect the US homeland, but if there’s civil division, who does the military defend?
- There will be an ideological split, not demographic. Centralist vs Decentralist.
- Balaji sees a potential for a Bitcoin seizure bill like executive order 6102 which forbade ownership of gold in the US.
- It’ll be centralist vs decentralist. It looks like hacks cyberwar, people with guns eg. Afghanistan.
- The West in general is decentralizing because they’re no longer a culture with shared values and aspirations. The internet has allowed people to connect with like-minded people anywhere.
China as the Centralized Superpower
- China is the most centralized in a decentralized era which provides stability in the decentralizing world.
- China has a potential 10x and they are ruthless. E.g., They banned Btc mining, the great firewall.
- Long-term Balaji sees China falls to decentralization, but the new states would have to survive an attack against a Chinese superpower.
- The future may be Centralized China vs decentralized developers.
Centralized vs Decentralized
- Potential conflicts: Cyberwarfare vs Giant AI. Crypto vs CBDC. Migration and mobility vs. Control of Internal Migration.
- Decentralized states would need to be able to defend against China’s colonization.
- The decentralized defense will look like spec ops and terrorism combo. Digital gorilla warfare.
- Many states will elect colonization
- All of this is somewhat a Scifi fictional scenario
- There are decades where not much happens and weeks where decades happen.
- When there’s totalitarianism, people want freedom. When there’s anarchy, people want leadership
- Balaji views India as a rising force and will play an important role in the future. They’re highly patriotic.
- “Bitcoin Breaks all incompetent states”
The Sovereign Collective
- Sovereignty is fuel for innovation. There’s more upside and more downside.
- We’ll see organic leaders and cultures. Messy, but we’ll see some amazing cities and network states.
- 2000’s Tech Companies, 2010’s – Crypto Protocols. 2020’s – Startup Cities. 2030’s – Network States.