
November 6, 2020
Dan Carlin: Hardcore History (#136) | on Lex Fridman Podcast
Check out the Lex Fridman Podcast Page & Episode Notes
Key Takeaways
- What’s interesting is that Germany might have been stronger in WWII without anti-semitism
- Albert Einstein, along with other scientists and other valuable people would have been fighting on Germany’s side
- The Holocaust might have prevented Germany from getting the nuclear bomb first
- Germany used many resources in the Holocaust that could have been allocated to war efforts
- Albert Einstein, along with other scientists and other valuable people would have been fighting on Germany’s side
- Defining evil is difficult
– “One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter” – Dan Carlin - Climate Change is a clear example of the flaws of our collective decision making
– Too many things have to go right to prevent us from destroying the Planet
– People around the World have to get onboard together
– Nations would have to put aside their interests in favor of the collective ones
– For this reason, Dan sees this as the most likely way we’ll destroy ourselves - Despite the impressive progress, Elon made with SpaceX, Dan is most impressed with Tesla
- Consumers who don’t care about the environment still want Tesla
- Elon has aligned the incentives of individuals with those of the Planet
- Consumers who don’t care about the environment still want Tesla
Key Products Mentioned
- Dan mentioned From Here to Eternity by James Jones as they were talking about how being a soldier changes you
- While discussing the history of Nazi Germany, Lex mentioned The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich by William L. Shirer
Intro
- Dan Carlin (@dccommonsense) is a historian, political thinker, and the host of the Hardcore History Podcast and the Common Sense Podcast
- Check out Dan’s website
- Check out these podcasts notes from Dan’s Hardcore History Addendum and from the Common Sense Podcast
- Host: Lex Fridman (@lexfridman)
- In this chat, Dan Carlin and Lex Fridman discuss a variety of topics: from the nature of evil and Hitler to Elon Musk and the future of humanity
Nature of Evil
- Is inflicting suffering always evil?
- Motivations matter too
- You could inflict suffering on a small group of people to prevent suffering on a larger group
- Would that be evil?
- Stalin created tremendous suffering, while honestly believing that he was doing good for the World
- Alexander the Great was mostly killing to glorify his own name, does that make him worse than Hitler and Stalin?
- You could inflict suffering on a small group of people to prevent suffering on a larger group
- It’d be important to consider if the people inflicting suffering were mentally sane
- The perspective we look from also matters
- How would we have seen Hitler if the Nazis had won the war?
- Motivations matter too
Is Violence Inherent in the Human Condition?
- What’s the difference between violence and “force”?
- “Force” as a way to create a change when things are going wrong
- Dan thinks that force may be inevitable for a civilization to exist
- Is non-violent force enough?
- Often force spills over into violence
Will We Always Have War?
- How can a nation prevent another one from creating harm in the World?
- We’d need to have a Global Entity that alleviates the need for a violent counter-force
- Such a central entity would also be vulnerable to the corruption of power
- We’d need to have a Global Entity that alleviates the need for a violent counter-force
- Does the existence of armies create an incentive to use them?
- War becomes a justification for the existence of the army
- Yet armies are necessary for a nation to defend itself
- There’s a big difference between soldiers and the Military-Industrial Complex
- Soldiers could be any of us, and in history lay citizens were often forced to go to war
- Dan sees their actions as heroic when they are fighting to protect others
- But soldiers are often also victims of the situation
- We need to be suspicious about the Military making the decision to go to war
- Is it really necessary?
- Patriotism is often used to manipulate people into going to war
- It is very strong in the US
- Lex remembers it being a lot stronger in the Communist Party of the Soviet Union
- Soldiers could be any of us, and in history lay citizens were often forced to go to war
Ideological Societies and Government Skepticism
- Both US and the Soviet Union are (were) both ideology-based societies
- The whole society stands on a few, very strong ideologies
- Members of each society are conditioned to regard their ideology as superior
- These countries tend to spread their ideology across the World
- They don’t really know if that’s what other countries want or need
- Other countries are not as united by a specific ideology, rather by their nationality
- The whole society stands on a few, very strong ideologies
- Having a strong belief in your nation’s ideal can be beautiful
- You believe in something bigger than yourself
- Dan tends to be very suspicious of government
- Propaganda and manipulation are a large portion of government
- He thinks that healthy skepticism of government is in line with American ideals
On Putin
- Dan, aware of his American biases, thinks that as long as the Russian people freely voted and elected him, that is fine
- If elections are taken away, it becomes a different story, as it removes individual freedom
- Putin managed to maintain his power by tightly controlling the media, thus limiting freedom of speech
- In Lex’s experience, as a Russian, most people in Russia still love Putin
- They see Putin as a strong force that prevents the corruption of the system to take over
- They are also afraid of another collapse of the country
- This looks similar to the problem faced by many monarchs, who were succeeded by less capable man, leading to collapse
- In these situations, it’s important to set up a system that can outlive the leader
- They see Putin as a strong force that prevents the corruption of the system to take over
- Lex sees a huge change in Putin from the day he first took power
- “Absolute power corrupts absolutely”
Journalism Is Broken
- From Putin’s perspective, journalists can be seen as the enemy of the state
- They take things out of context, makeup stuff, make shallow critiques
- But once you try to limit those kinds of journalists, you can easily start limiting all those who oppose you
- If the government is the only approved outlet for truth, any American would see it as a tyranny
- You could say that the American press system is also broken
- The idea of a universal truth that we can all agree on doesn’t exist anymore
- Different groups of people have totally different views of what’s true
- Let’s not pretend that there was a great time, even in the US, of truthful journalism
- Even in the past, journalists had to carry forward the interests of the government and of the newspapers’ owners
- The idea of a universal truth that we can all agree on doesn’t exist anymore
Genghis Khan and the Mongols
- The Mongol empire is sometimes portrayed as a liberal one
- For example, they allowed anyone who was conquered to practice their own religion
- This was more likely a way to maintain order than to preserve individual freedoms (similar to what the Roman Empire did)
- There’s a line about the Romans “they created a wasteland and called it peace”
- This was more likely a way to maintain order than to preserve individual freedoms (similar to what the Roman Empire did)
- For example, they allowed anyone who was conquered to practice their own religion
- Differently from the Romans, the Mongols were a nomadic society
- Growing as nomads, they were better than anyone to ride horses and use them to their advantage
- Their skill could not be copied
- They were often hired as mercenaries
- Their military advantage ended in the 17th and 18th century when the Chinese and Russians started using firearms
- Growing as nomads, they were better than anyone to ride horses and use them to their advantage
What Makes a Great Leader (Whether Good or Evil)?
- Taking Alexander The Great as an example
- He inherited the greatest army of his day
- Perhaps his dad, who built the army was greater than him
- Self-made men who rose to power from nothing may be considered better leaders
- He inherited the greatest army of his day
- Interesting to wonder what was Hitler’s defining moment
- He was a common soldier in the First World War
- He didn’t show such strong anti-semitism until the end of WWI
- How did he change so drastically? What happened to him?
- “The time molded the man, versus Gengis Khan where it feels that the man molded his time” – Lex Fridman
- He was a common soldier in the First World War
- “Great men are almost always bad men” – Lord Acton
- In order to be great, you’d have to discard moral qualities that we’d attribute to good men
Heroism in Nazi Germany
- What does heroic action look like in Germany in 1930s?
- One needed to act against his own government, in an “unpatriotic” way
- In the 1940s, movements such as The White Rose openly worked against the Nazi
- The power was already consolidated
- These people knew they’d be killed but did it anyway
- People within the army who were secretly trying to undermine Hitler did not put their life on the line in the same way
- There’s a difference between heroes who sacrifice but do not achieve their goal and heroes who do
- How could Hitler have been stopped?
- To answer this question we really have to understand the political situation in Germany after WWI
- The great dissatisfaction with the Weimar Republic
- The only other alternative to Nazis at the time were communist agitators
- In this context, Hitler’s message of restoring German’s greatness was very appealing
- At such a time of suffering, any message of peace and brotherhood could not gain traction
- The most obvious way Hitler could have been stopped earlier has nothing to do with Germans
- When he re-militarized the Rhineland, the French army could have stopped him if they contested him
- To answer this question we really have to understand the political situation in Germany after WWI
- Hitler was a product of his time
- Even if he was taken out, we cannot know what could have happened
- Somebody else could have stepped in and done the same, or even worse
- Even if he was taken out, we cannot know what could have happened
Hitler’s Anti-Semitism
- Could Hitler have risen to power without anti-semitism?
- Anti-semitism was not an integral part of fascism
- Mussolini did it to please Hitler
- Anti-semitism was not an integral part of fascism
- Hitler was obsessed with this conspiracy against Jews
- He surrounded himself with people who would reinforce it
- What’s interesting is that Germany might have been stronger in WWII without anti-semitism
- Albert Einstein, along with other scientists and other valuable people would have been fighting on Germany’s side
- The Holocaust might have prevented Germany from getting the nuclear bomb first
- Germany used many resources in the Holocaust that could have been allocated to war efforts
- Albert Einstein, along with other scientists and other valuable people would have been fighting on Germany’s side
Evil and Incompetence
- “Evil contains that kind of incompetence” – Lex Fridman
- People driven by pure hatred are usually not that competent
- That explains why terrorists today still haven’t been able to use atomic bombs
- People driven by pure hatred are usually not that competent
- Dan disagrees with this view
- In the timeline of history, it’s still been a few years since the nuclear weapon has been discovered
- It is still possible that terrorists will get weapons of mass destruction
- Or they may still do incredible harm without nuclear weapons
- It is still possible that terrorists will get weapons of mass destruction
- Defining evil is difficult
- “One man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter” – Dan Carlin
- In the timeline of history, it’s still been a few years since the nuclear weapon has been discovered
Will Human Civilization Destroy Itself?
- The Cuban missile crisis in 1962 was the closest event in which we saw the potential of nuclear war
- The odds seemed to suggest there would be a nuclear war
- John F. Kennedy’s decisions may have saved more than a hundred million lives
- Everyone around him disagreed with the decisions he made
- John F. Kennedy’s decisions may have saved more than a hundred million lives
- The odds seemed to suggest there would be a nuclear war
- Dan is more pessimistic about the decisions that humans have to make collectively
- Climate Change is a clear example of the flaws of our collective decision making
- Too many things have to go right to prevent us from destroying the Planet
- People around the World have to get on board together
- Nations would have to put aside their interests in favor of the collective ones
- For this reason, Dan sees this as the most likely way we’ll destroy ourselves
- Too many things have to go right to prevent us from destroying the Planet
- Climate Change is a clear example of the flaws of our collective decision making
- Could we get inspiring leaders around the world to save us?
- We’d need too many leaders at the same time in all countries to be making the right decisions
- More than good vs. evil, Dan looks at self-interest as a way to gauge whether we’ll avoid self-destruction
- Can we get all individuals to align their interests?
Can the US Avoid a Civil War?
- There are large differences among the American people, and these are exacerbated by the media
- Seeking the highest engagement, media tends to be extreme and divide us further
- Dan wonders whether another uniting even such as Pearl Harbor would re-unite the American people
- It’s difficult to think about a civil war in the traditional sense today, as there’s no geographic division
- Today there would likely be domestic terrorist attacks
- Only a few people would need to misbehave to create chaos
- For every action there is an equal opposite reaction
- You only need one person to start, and the situation would quickly escalate
- The way to create stability then, would be a dictatorial government
- Similarly to what happened in Germany
- Only a few people would need to misbehave to create chaos
- Today there would likely be domestic terrorist attacks
Elon Musk and Tesla
- Despite the impressive progress, Elon made with SpaceX, Dan is most impressed with Tesla
- Consumers who don’t care about the environment still want Tesla
- Elon has aligned the incentives of individuals with those of the Planet
- Consumers who don’t care about the environment still want Tesla
- Elon also empowers us to think that each of us can have a strong impact on the World
Can a Few Individuals Unite us and Help us Avoid Radical Escalation?
- Lex is thinking about podcasters like Dan and Joe Rogan with huge audiences
- Throughout history, people spreading messages of love and peace (Jesus, Gandhi, Martin Luther King) were all killed
- They were all seen as dangerous to the system in which they lived
- They were killed because they were effective, charismatic leaders who don’t come around often
- Killing them was an effective strategy to limit their effectiveness
- At the same time, we still feel the ripples of their actions
Podcasting, Joe Rogan and Spotify
- Nowadays it takes a lot of resources and effort to monetize a podcast
- Dan would prefer to be able to focus only on the content
- That’s what Spotify offered to Joe Rogan
- The idea to partner with an outside firm that enhances his ability to focus on the art is enticing
- At the same time, Dan is skeptical of big companies, as they may try to steer the content in certain directions
- In Joe Rogan’s case, they specified in the contract that Spotify has no control over the content
- That’s what Spotify offered to Joe Rogan
- Now it’s in Spotify’s interest to grow Joe’s podcast
– Even if Joe decides to leave in a few years, he may walk away with a larger audience - Dan keeps his mind open to the possibility and is watching Joe to see how it goes for him
Hardcore History’s Evergreen Content
- Dan feels pressure from his audience to release podcast episodes as quickly as possible
- He tries to not give in to that pressure and to never compromise on quality
- People may listen to HH episodes years after they were released
- They won’t care how long it took to produce
- Dan knows that his audience will forgive him, if he takes a bit longer to put it out, as long as the quality is good
- “The only thing that gives you longevity is how good it is (your content)” – Dan Carlin
- In the future, Dan is planning to make a new podcast on Alexander The Great