September 7, 2018

The Joe Rogan Experience – Elon Musk

Intro

• Elon Musk (@elonmusk) is perhaps the most requested guest of all time
• He is the founder of Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, and The Boring Company

The Boring Company

• Elon has a “hobby company” called The Boring Company
  • It started as a joke, and then they decided to make it real, and dig a tunnel under LA as a traffic fix
    • Elon has lived in LA for 16 years and the traffic has always been horrible
    • So maybe the tunnel will help – “Maybe it will be successful, maybe it won’t”
    • They’ve dug about a mile so far
    • This tunnel will actually be very safe during an earthquake
      • Earthquakes are essentially a surface thing – like waves on an ocean
      • The tunnel is constructed with “interlocking segments with double seals – like a snake exoskeleton”
        • Even when the ground moves, the tunnel will shift with the ground, like an underground snake.
    • Elon plans to build multiple tunnel levels – “You can have 100 levels of tunnel, no problem”
      • “You can go further down with tunnels, than you can go up with buildings. You can go 10,000 feet down if you want.”
  • The Boring Company originally old sold hats
  • They then started selling flamethrowers 
    • They made 20,000 of them, and they sold out in 4 days – no more will be made
    • Each was $500
    • It’s actually just a roofing torch with an air rifle cover – so it’s technically not a real flamethrower
      • To solve shipping problems, they labeled shipping boxes as “Not a Flamethrower”
• When Elon has a bold idea, like building a tunnel, who does he bring it to?
  • For the tunnel – he first told it to a long time Space X engineer, Steve Davis
    • They just got a permit to dig a pit in the ground (a pit in the Space X parking lot)
    • “We just started off with a pit in our parking lot, a big pit” – It eventually turned into the tunnel

How does Elon have time to do everything he does?

• “I have a million ideas, there’s no shortage”
• “People don’t totally understand what I do with my time”
  • Elon’s Wikipedia page says he’s a “business magnate”
  • Elon estimates that 80% of his time is spent dealing with engineering and manufacturing
• Note form Podcast Notes – I wish they expanded more on this. The myth remains. HOW DOES ELON DO ALL THAT HE DOES???

“We’re all basically chimps”

• “We’re one notch above a chimp” – Elon
• “I might have some mutation or something like that”

Artificial Intelligence

• “It’s less of a worry than it used to be, mainly due to taking more of a fatalistic attitude”
• “It’s not necessarily bad, it’s just outside human control”
• It will be very tempting to use AI as a weapon – and it will probably happen
• “A company is essentially a cybernetic collective, of people and machines”
  • Google, plus all the humans that use it, are one giant cybernetic collective
  • We’re all effectively programming the AI – This is also true of Facebook, Instagram, Twitter etc.
• Materialism
  • Perhaps it’s built into us – to always have the latest and greatest, Joe thinks – just like ants and their drive to build an ant hill
  • “We’re a weird thing, and I’ve often wondered if our ultimate goal is to give birth to some new thing (like AI), and that’s why we’re so obsessed with technology” – Joe
• “The percentage of intelligence that is not human, is increasing”
  • Eventually humans will represent a very small percentage of all intelligence
• The success of these online systems is a function of how much limbic resonance they’re able to achieve with people
  • The more limbic resonance, the more engagement
  • The reason Instagram is more enticing than Twitter – more limbic resonance
• Elon was once a big proponent of slowing down AI development and regulating it more heavily – this is talked about in the book Life 3.0
  • But Elon says, his efforts were futile
  • A good point – the auto industry once fought regulation (like seat belts) for decades
    • The same thing will happen with AI – regulation will be slow to develop
    • It has to happen quicker with AI – if we wait to regulate it, it’ll be too late
      • Otherwise, it’s “a countdown until we’re out of control”
      • “It could be terrible, it could be great. It’s not clear. But one thing’s for sure, we won’t control it.”
• Chimps and AI
  • Check out the documentary Chimpanzee – Elon recommends it
  • “We, in a way, to the AI, might be like chimps” – Joe
  • But Elon has a good point – we don’t think about chimps, AI probably won’t even care about us

Neuralink

• The scenario in which we merge with AI, is the one it probably turns out best for us
  • “If you can’t beat it, join it”
• This is the premise of Elon’s company Neuralink
• Elons says Neuralink will have something to announce in a few months, that’s “better than anyone thinks is possible”
• Neuralink essentially wants to add a brain-computer interface to humans
• “It will enable anyone who wants to have super human cognition, to have it”
• Note from Podcast Notes – Check out this excellent blog post on Neuralink. It’s long but very much worth the read.
• Elon draws a comparison – think about how much smarter you yourself are with a phone
  • “Your phone is already an extension of you. You’re already a cyborg, and most people don’t realize it.”
  • The problem though – the communication rate between you and your phone/computer is very slow (compared to what it could be) – This is the problem Neuralink is setting out to solve

Social Media

• “People look like they have a much better life than they really do” – Elon
  • You’re prone to think – “There’s all these happy beautiful people, and I’m not that good looking, and I’m not happy, so I must suck”
  • “Those people you think are super happy, are not that happy”
  • “Some of the happiest seeming people, actually are some of the saddest people in reality”
• “Comparison is the thief of joy” – Theodore Roosevelt

The Simulation and The Universe

• The Universe is 13.8 billion years old
• “If you assume any rate of improvement at all, gains will be indistinguishable from reality (or civilization will end), so we’re most likely in a simulation”
  • Elon thinks there are many simulations, like our own, running at the same time
  • He has an interesting analogy – think about the filming of an action movie, it takes forever
    • The actual action movie itself, is only 2-3 hours of entertainment
    • If we’re in a simulation, reality outside the simulation, is probably pretty boring – like the filming of the action movie
• “Eventually the universe will end, it’s just a question of when, so it really is all about the journey”
  • “The universe as we know it will dissipate into a fine mist of cold nothingness eventually”

Tesla

• “Most people don’t know what it can do”
  • The Model X can do ballet to the Trans Siberian Orchestra
• “I think a Tesla is the most fun thing you could possibly ever buy”
  • “It’s not a car, it’s a thing to maximize enjoyment”
• Teslas are driving itself better everyday
  • If you currently fall asleep while it’s in self driving mode…
    • If no one touches the wheel after a while, the car will gradually slow down, the emergency lights will go on, and the car will honk to wake you up
• Elon has a 1961 Series 1 E Type Jaguar and an old Ford Model T – which are his only 2 gasoline cars
• In Ludicrous Mode, the Tesla (he doesn’t say which model) goes 0-60 mph in 2.2 seconds
  • The new next generation Roadster will be able to go 0-60 mph in 1.9 seconds

Flying Cars?

• Too noisy and too much air flow – just like Neil deGrasse Tyson said
• “If you want some flying cars, just put some wheels on a helicopter”

Electric Planes and the Energy Crisis

• Elon has a design ready – “I’ve thought about this quite a lot”
• It would have electric vertical take off and landing
• Note from Podcast Notes – Elon goes on a long rant about force balance, air density, etc. which I don’t understand (neither does Joe)
• “An electric plane isn’t necessary right now. An electric car is. Solar energy, and stationary storage of energy – these are important. More important than electric planes.”
  • “We’re really playing a crazy game with the atmosphere and the oceans”
  • e’re taking vast amounts of carbon, from deep underground, and putting it in the atmosphere – “This is crazy and dangerous, we should not do this”
  • The more carbon we take out of the ground, and add to the atmosphere, the more dangerous it is”
  • Elon thinks we’re okay right now, but the momentum toward sustainable energy is too slow
  • “The scientific consensus is overwhelming. I don’t know any serious scientist who doesn’t think we have a serious climate risk that we’re facing”
• At one point, Elon wanted to put solar panels on Tesla cars to power them

More on Tesla and Electric Cars

• The bottle neck for electric cars..
  • Distance, battery capacity, and production scale up
  • The new Tesla Roadster will be able to travel 600 miles 
  • The Model S, 100 kWh pack, has about a 330 mile range
• The Tesla traction control system is very good
  • They do their testing on ice lakes in Sweeden, Norway, and New Zealand
• Electric cars have really good traction control, because the reaction time is so fast (milliseconds)
  • For gasoline cars, there’s a lot of latency – it takes a while for the engine to react
• The Model S, Model X, and Model 3 have the lowest probability of injury of any car ever tested by the US government

Random

• Elon advised Joe to order a Tesla Model S P100D – This is the car Elon drives
  • The Model S P100D with Ludicrous mode is advertised with a 0 to 60 mph acceleration in 2.5 seconds and a range of 335 miles.
• Joe is wearing a Casio Pro Trek solar powered watch
  • Elon – “I don’t wear a watch, my phone tells the time”
• Elon doesn’t have a phone case
• Future bottlenecks for Elon’s companies:
  • “I wish politicians were better at science, that would help a lot”
    • “They’re pretty good at science in China”
• What keeps Elon up at night?
  • “It’s quite hard to run companies, particularly a car company”
    • There’s only 2 car companies in history that haven’t gone bankrupt – Ford and Tesla
• The Transition
  • There will at one point be a mix of many electric and gasoline cars on the road at the same time
    • Just like when horses were on the road with cars for a period of time

Joe Sparks the Blunt

• It’s tobacco mixed with marijuana
• Elon hits the blunt
  • “I am not a regular smoker of weed”
• Shortly after, Elon started getting texts from friends scolding him for this
• “I don’t find weed is good for productivity”
  • “It’s like a cup of coffee in reverse”

Inside Elon’s Mind

• “I don’t think you’d necessarily want to be me. I don’t think people would like it that much.”
• Elon says the worst part about “being him” – “It’s very hard to turn it off”
  • Joe recommends Elon try a float tank
  • “I don’t know what would happen if I got in a sensory deprivation tank – it’s concerning, but I’ll try it”
• He’s tried meditation before, something mantra based
  • “It stills the mind, but I don’t find myself drawn to it frequently”
• Elon explains his mind as a “never ending explosion of ideas”
• “Just think of the various things you’ve been able to accomplish in a short amount of time, and you’re constantly doing this. You’re a very weird person.” – Joe
  • “I agree” – Elon
• “My goal is to do useful things, maximize the probability that the future is good, and make the future exciting”
  • With Tesla – “We’re just trying to make something people love”
  • Elon often asks himself – “What are the set of things that I can do to make the future better?”

Space Exploration

• “There needs to be things that make you look forward to waking up in the morning. A future where we are a space bearing civilization, that is very exciting. That’s a future I want.”
• Elon has his sites set on colonizing Mars, our moon, the moons of Jupiter, the asteroid belt, Saturn, and even Pluto
• Note from Podcast Notes – They don’t get into SpaceX much at all besides this

Love is the Answer

“Give people the benefit of the doubt – Assume they’re good until proven otherwise. Most people are pretty good people.”

• “This may sound corny, but love is the answer”
• “It wouldn’t hurt to have more love in the world”
• Spend more time with your friends and less time on social media
• “Be nicer to each other. Give more credit to others. It’s easy to demonize people, but you’re usually wrong about it. People are nicer than you think.”