
April 2, 2020
COVID-19: Treatments, Testing, & Timeline | Peter Hotez, M.D., Ph.D. on Joe Rogan Experience #1451
Check out Dr. Peter Hotez’s first appearance on JRE
Key Takeaways
- The coronavirus is about 5-10x more lethal than the regular seasonal flu
- The seasonal flu kills 12-50K people annually
- It’s estimated that COVID-19 will kill between 50-500K Americans. Peter Hotez believes the number will be closer to 84K
- The coronavirus affects individuals across age groups, including young people
- About ⅓ of people in the hospital with the coronavirus are 20-44-year-olds
- About 10% of infants are getting very sick from the virus
- The Chinese population has genetic differences with Europeans and Americans, and the virus is affecting each group differently
- Pathogens also behave differently depending on a person’s blood type
- The worst is yet to come: “We’re not even at the peak yet and another 2 weeks of this is going to continue to go up” – Peter Hotez
- California and Texas will peak around May
- Hopefully things will bottom out by June
- California and Texas will peak around May
- The best thing we can do right now is social distancing–especially if you live in a city
- “Social distancing is absolutely paramount” – Peter Hotez
- And try to stay healthy: “Keeping yourself healthy could make the difference between life or death”
- Don’t smoke, vape, stay fit, limit alcohol intake
- And try to stay healthy: “Keeping yourself healthy could make the difference between life or death”
- “Social distancing is absolutely paramount” – Peter Hotez
Intro
- Peter Hotez (@PeterHotez), M.D., Ph.D. is Dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine and Professor of Pediatrics and Molecular Virology & Microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine
- Peter also appeared on JRE #1261
- Peter’s books:
- Host: Joe Rogan (@joerogan)
How Serious Is COVID-19?
- The coronavirus is about 5-10x more lethal than the regular seasonal flu
- The seasonal flu kills 12-50K people every year
- It’s estimated that COVID-19 will kill between 50-500K Americans, Peter believes the number will be closer to 84K
- Getting the flu vaccine will help weaken the impact of the flu if you contract it
- One major problem with the coronavirus is that people can spread it to others before they even see symptoms of the virus
- About ⅓ of people in the hospital with the coronavirus are 20-44-year-olds
- About 10% of infants are getting very sick from the virus
- There are genetic differences between the Chinese population, Europeans, and Americans, so the virus is affecting each group differently
- Pathogens also behave differently depending on a person’s blood type
- In Spain, there is a 10% mortality rate: Out of every 100 people diagnosed with the virus, 10 have died
- The highest mortality rate in the US is in New Orleans–it has a 5% mortality rate
- The New Orleans healthcare system is overwhelmed and a large part of the population has diabetes and hypertension
- Additionally, smoking cigarettes increases the impact of coronavirus on your body
- The New Orleans healthcare system is overwhelmed and a large part of the population has diabetes and hypertension
- The highest mortality rate in the US is in New Orleans–it has a 5% mortality rate
- The coronavirus is causing lung and heart disease
- The virus causes a large amount of inflammation in the lungs, and there are some reports saying the virus enters the heart and can potentially enter the intestinal tract
Possible Treatments
- Chloroquine is used as an anti-malaria drug, it also reduces inflammation
- There have been some positive results from combining chloroquine with Zithromax Z-Pak but Peter warns that “I think we have to be really careful and don’t be too quick to say okay this is going to be it” – Peter Hotez
- We also don’t know what is the optimal dosage for making it an effective treatment
- “The hardest thing to do is to accelerate new technologies for a new virus pathogen…while the epidemic is raging”
- We also don’t know what is the optimal dosage for making it an effective treatment
- There have been some positive results from combining chloroquine with Zithromax Z-Pak but Peter warns that “I think we have to be really careful and don’t be too quick to say okay this is going to be it” – Peter Hotez
- It took 5 years to create a vaccine for ebola
- If a vaccine for the coronavirus is created, it probably won’t be used this year but for 2021 and later years
- Scientists are also looking into steroids and other anti-inflammatory drugs as possible treatments
- The best thing we can do right now is social distancing–especially if you live in a city
- “Social distancing is absolutely paramount” – Peter Hotez
- And try to stay healthy: “Keeping yourself healthy could make the difference between life or death”
- Don’t smoke, vape, stay fit, limit alcohol intake
- And try to stay healthy: “Keeping yourself healthy could make the difference between life or death”
- “Social distancing is absolutely paramount” – Peter Hotez
Testing & Infrastructure Problems
- The testing method for coronavirus isn’t perfect: “Diagnosing respiratory virus pathogens is not easy, it takes a lot of time to do the quality control and really figure out all the testing” – Peter Hotez
- “We don’t have the infrastructure in place we need to rapidly accelerate vaccines because…it’s a fragmented infrastructure and we’re always scrambling for funds” – Peter Hotez
Will This Be Over By Easter?
- No, the worst is yet to come: “We’re not even at the peak yet and another 2 weeks of this is going to continue to go up” – Peter Hotez
- California and Texas will peak around May
- Hopefully things will bottom out by June
- “We also don’t know if this thing’s coming back…even if it goes down this summer, does it come back up again in the fall?” – Peter Hotez
- It’s possible that the coronavirus is seasonal, as temperature and humidity rise, the cases will fall
- “We also don’t know if this thing’s coming back…even if it goes down this summer, does it come back up again in the fall?” – Peter Hotez
Additional Notes
- This is the 3rd major coronavirus situation of the 21st century
- SARS in 2003
- MERS in 2012
- COVID-19 in 2019
- However, this is a completely new virus and the best thing one can do is to keep an eye on updates and advice from accurate sources
- More of the G20 countries need to step up to help fund global health technologies, the world can’t rely solely on the US and European Union
- We need to figure out a way to get Republicans and Democrats to talk and work together to pass health legislature to make sure the country is prepared for future epidemics