
September 14, 2015
Freakonomics: Preventing Crimes for Pennies on the Dollar
7/10 microphones, Listen to the Podcast
Problem: Violence in Chicago
- Chicago has 3x higher homicide vs. NYC
- Chicago has very active/violent gangs vs. NY that does not
- More than 100,000 gang members vs. 20,000 gang members
The Usual Approach: Lots of cash to mentor/advise and try reduce violence
- A massive project was launched in 2009 with mentoring, etc. that cost $27k per student
- Levitt was asked to model how to best the resources at most at risk students
- Predictive modelling done looking at past shootings to predict those at highest risk
- Best predictor: Male
- Other predictors: Been in Juvenile Detention, HS Dropout, African American (but not once you control for other factors)
- Able to find a group that was at 20X risk vs. average student (HOWEVER, the average risk was so low that very shootings are avoided even by selected these students
- Predictive modelling done looking at past shootings to predict those at highest risk
- Also evaluated efficacy of the program: Results so almost no effect…
- Confirms conventional wisdom is that there is not much you can do to help once they are already teenagers (too late to rewire kids). Is this true or an excuse?
- Levitt was asked to model how to best the resources at most at risk students
New Approach: Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) Type Strategy
- (CBT) Cognitive Behavioral Therapy: Goal to change behaviors without dwelling on underlying reasons that is done with talk therapy
- Think differently about behaviors that have become almost automatic and be able to respond differently and more thoughtfully to stress
- Has been shown to work in a variety of ways, but hasn’t been focused on dropout and crime
- Source theory: Daniel Kahneman on System 1 and System 2 processing, Nobel prize winner in Behavioral Economics (Thinking Fast and Slow)
- System 1 is automatic/subconscious
- System 2 is when we consciously think and make decisions
- Goal to shift certain behaviors that are maladaptive from System 1 to System 2 to improve results and decrease violence
- Youth Guidance: Non-profit trying to help in Chicago, led by Tony Divatorio
- Evaluated by Crime Lab of Chicago as a randomized and controlled study (random and control by lottery)
- Goal is to teach kids to slow down thinking and reduce automatic behavior
- Kids in Chicago might have learned automatic responses that might be more confrontational when challenged (this is probably reasonable when being robbed, but not appropriate in school)
- Techniques:
- Fist Exercise: 12 kids invited to sit in circle, told to find a partner, pick a letter per person
- A’s make a fist
- B has 30 sec. to open A’s fist
- NO RULES, GO! = start beating each other up
- Then switch and do it again = Chaos and Fun
- Stop to talk about it… Nobody ever asked the partner to open first
- Ask why they know it won’t work?
- Lecture: A powerful man becomes an exceptional man when they know how to Ask for what they want
- High School Day: Role Playing
- Difference between Savage and Warrior Energy
- Savage is a normal emotion
- Warrior energy is taking Savage Energy and choosing to use it positively
- Help learn and talk about what works, what is difficult and then they open up about the personal issues
- DO NOT tell them have to behave
- Dumb to tell them not to fight, just learn how to think a little more
- Results: 2700 boys from 7-10th grad (1/3 had been arrested before study)
- 44% decline in violent crime arrests
- 36% decline in other arrests
- Increase in school engagement rates likely to increase graduation rates by 7-22% percent
- Almost too good to be true… doubted that it was true
- Repeated with a second study and found 30% decline in overall arrests
- Is it just Youth Guidance/Tony, or can it work with other people?
- 3rd experiment without Youth Guidance involved at a Youth Detention Center (after arrest, before jail)
- Results: 20% Decline
- Costs: CBT is relatively low cost, just change what you’re doing for 30 mins a day and train people
- $1,100 per person vs. $28 with previous program (very cost effective)
- City of Chicago and Rahm Emannuel are supportive of the approach and studies that rigorously look at the results
- Other cities should take note and be more willing to work with researchers to evaluate how they spend their money and do studies
- Where the Effects Lasting?
- Some short term evidence, first study the violent crime effect faded away in second year, but schooling engagement continued
- Detention Center Study: Reduced return rates for 12-18 months
- Even short term only benefits to Violence are hugely beneficial
- Violence also peaks with age in teens, and fade when older so one key year is important
- Next Week: CBT with Cash incentives in Liberia
- Difference between Savage and Warrior Energy
- Fist Exercise: 12 kids invited to sit in circle, told to find a partner, pick a letter per person