2023 Bestie Predictions! | All-In Podcast with Chamath, Jason, Sacks, & Friedberg (E110) |

Intro

  • Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath), Jason Calacanis (@Jason), David Sacks (@DavidSacks), and David Friedberg (@friedberg) give their 2023 predictions on politics, business, and more!
  • Follow along with All-In Podcast Notes throughout 2023 to see which bestie is the most (and least) accurate

2023’s Biggest Political Winner

  • Chamath: Nikki Haley– Former Republican Governor ofSouth Carolina
    • Moderates are emerging as a favorable class – “People are getting exhausted with the lunatic fringes of both parties” – Chamath Palihapitiya
    • Chamath believes the first female president is more likely to be Republican than Democrat
  • Jason: Donald Trump(in a wild prediction)
    • Trump loses 40 to 50 pounds using Ozempic. He debates Ron DeSantis in the primaries, attacking his height and weight. Trump wins the Republican nomination. Trump then gets indicted by Garland. He accepts a pardon in exchange for not running against Biden.
    • “This proves that everything you have to say about Trump is an act of projection” – Sacks to Jason
  • Sacks: Asian-American College Applicants
    • Expects gridlock in Washington in the coming year, so he went outside the box
    • Two pending Supreme Court decisions against Harvard and UNC for violating Title Six of the Civil Rights Act
    • Students For Fair Admissions are fighting for Asian Americans because they are getting admitted to college at a lower rate than other qualified groups
    • “They’re the last group in America where it seems to be OK to discriminate against, and I think the Supreme Court is going to find this unconstitutional” – David Sacks
  • Friedberg: Mohammed bin Salman (MBS)– Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia
    • Saudi Arabia will have greater global influence – relationships with the U.S., China, and Russia
    • Biden’s conversations with MBS so far have been quite confrontational – “You can’t be rigid in foreign policy, you have to be fluid” – Jason Calacanis

2023’s Biggest Political Loser

  • Chamath: RonDeSantis – Republican Governor of Florida
    • Historically, it’s a negative thing to be in the lead for nomination at the Iowa caucuses. It’s easier to emerge from the back.
    • Sacks still thinks DeSantis has the best odds, he is accepted by both the Establishment and Populous wings of the Republican party
  • Jason: RonDeSantis – Republican Governor of Florida
    • Agrees with Chamath. Says DeSantis peaked too early.
  • Sacks: California (especially San Francisco)
    • “Kevin McCarthy may not survive the week, so let me go in a different direction” – David Sacks
    • In 2021, California had a budget surplus of $76 billion. In 2022, they had a deficit of $24 billion. 2023 will only be worse with tax funding coming from volatile sources.
    • Gavin Newson irresponsibly spent to get himself past the recall
    • San Francisco is largely funded by commercial real estate taxes, which is disappearing
  • Friedberg: Global Economy & the IMF (International Monetary Fund)
    • The world has too much debt and interest rates are too high
    • Global debt: $235 trillion ($5 to $15 trillion in interest payments every year)
    • Debt markets begin to unravel – The IMF (International Monetary Fund) will look bad no matter how they try to help

2023’s Biggest Business Winner

  • Chamath: Relativity Space (in Chamath’s portfolio)
    • 3-D printing entire rockets for space travel – reduces costs exponentially
    • Launch scheduled in January – “If the rocket does not blow up, there’s a $10 million order book and this company is on a trajectory to be as valuable as SpaceX. If it does [blow up], it goes to zero.” – Chamath Palihapitiya
  • Jason: Gig Economy (DoorDash, Uber, Etsy, etc.) & Laid-Off Big-Tech Workers
    • There’s more access to create and a greater supply of dreamers, so entrepreneurship will rise to the top
  • Sacks: America’s Natural Gas Industry(NYT article)
    • Europe has built terminals to receive liquified natural gas from the U.S. (fast-tracking any bureaucratic processes and environmental objections)
    • The war in Ukraine was not worth it to Sacks, but this is a big win for America
  • Friedberg: OpenAI – Creators of DALL-E 2& ChatGPT
    • “It’s way too obvious to be anything else this year… I think it’s inevitable they get a billion dollar investment this year.” – David Friedberg

2023’s Biggest Business Loser

  • Chamath: Google Search
    • Loser from a profitability and engagement perspective
    • Other companies are going to be able to compete with Google’s ability to “crawl the entire internet” and produce quality search results
    • ChatGPT’s value proposition: Why search when we can just give you the answer?
    • Losing 10 to 15% of usage to other companies would be a massive loss for Google Search
  • Jason: White-Collar Workers with No Hard Skills
    • Middle managers who don’t create or sell anything (Amazon just cut 18,000 workers in this category)
    • When companies “tighten their belts” at the same time, a recession can occur
  • Sacks: Consumers
    • “I just don’t understand how the consumer isn’t going to finally tap out in this economy” – David Sacks
    • Personal debt, credit card debt, high mortgage rates, poor stock performance, and layoffs are all to blame
    • A recession will hit in 2023 (if it hasn’t already)
  • Friedberg: Capital Intensive Start-Ups
    • Investors are getting tighter pockets
    • Growth is difficult when there’s not a clear path to funding
    • Seed Stage and Series A investing are still hot, but anything past that will struggle

2023’s Biggest Business Deal

  • Chamath: StarLink Will Go Public
    • Gives Elon Musk financial flexibility for all his ventures
    • Gets affordable internet to places where it currently doesn’t exist (airplanes being an example)
  • Jason: Amazon Grows a Forth Pillar
    • Three current pillars: Ecommerce (platform), Subscription (Prime), and Digital Services (AWS)
    • Fourth future pillar: Health Industry
  • Sacks: Trillion Dollar Deal Between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping
    • Putin currently calls it a “no limits partnership”
    • Russia is too dependent on China for energy, agriculture, and rare earth minerals
  • Friedberg: Oil Deal Between Saudi Arabi and China
    • If the deal is executed in Petroyuan, then it may be the end of the U.S. Dollar as the world’s reserve currency
    • Bonus Wild Card: Apple buys something out of the ordinary, like a media company or car brand, to diversify revenue

2023’s Most Contrarian Belief

  • Chamath: Inflation Doesn’t Fall Fast Enough for People’s Liking
    • Inflation for goods and services won’t fall unless there’s a balance between labor rates and participation
  • Jason: American Exceptionalism Continues to Soar
    • Other global powers will continue to self-sabotage themselves with anti-freedom policy
    • “You can not have exceptionalism without entrepreneurs and freedom” – Jason Calacanis
  • Sacks: Bromance Between Biden and Zelenskyy Ends
    • Ukraine will counter the Russians in the Spring. Win or lose, Biden’s and Zelenskyy’s interests will diverge. Biden has re-election to plan for, so he’ll either want negotiations to be made or to avoid global nuclear conflict. Both involve Zelenskyy standing down in some fashion.
  • Friedberg: The U.S. Dollar No Longer Trades like a Risk-Free Asset
    • The beginning of the end for the U.S. Dollar being the de facto global reserve currency
    • Large economic trading models will begin to be done in non-dollar denominations

2023’s Best-Performing Asset

  • Chamath: Cash and the Front End of the Yield Curve
    • Too much chop in the market- waiting for more certainty
    • Treasury Bills up to 2-Year Bonds (risk-free 4.5 to 5% this year)
    • “I’d rather miss the first 10 to 15% of a rally than try to overcorrect and pick a bottom… The goal this year is to stay resilient and stay in the game.” – Chamath Palihapitiya
  • Jason: Seed Stage Investing
    • Requires less capital investment than late-stage companies
  • Sacks: Agrees with Chamath
  • Friedberg: Infrastructure
    • Investment in infrastructure stimulates the economy and increases security
    • Categories: semi-conductor equipment, oil & gas services, equipment to support oil & gas, and the pharmaceutical industry
    • Honeywell is an example of a company that spreads across all these categories, which makes it a good investment

2023’s Worst-Performing Asset

  • Chamath: Tech, Energy, and Junk Debt
    • Tech & Energy: we must separate valuations from a company’s value to society
    • Junk Debt: an example being the downfall of commercial real estate in San Francisco
  • Jason: Energy
    • The alternative energy hype will die if we hit a recession
  • Sacks: Agrees with Chamath (Especially on Junk Debt)
  • Friedberg: Consumer Credit
    • Inflation did not curb demand, it just flamed the credit debt fire (even above normal spending patterns)
    • Consumers will not be able to meet their debt obligations relative to their earnings

2023’s Most Anticipated Trend

  • Jason: Austerity
    • Definition: the condition of living without unnecessary things and without comfort, with limited money or goods, or a practice, habit, or experience that is typical of this
    • Consumers will start to become more conservative and frugal
  • Chamath: Agrees with Jason
  • Sacks: Trumps Influence in the GOP Continues to Wane
    • There is a level of open defiance for Trump developing in the GOP
    • Trump will take the blame for all of Kevin McCarthy’s failures over the next 2 years
  • Friedberg: Cell & Gene Therapies
    • Edit or add genetic material to resolve diseases or change protein deficiencies. Engineer cells to attack cancer.
    • Currently 27 cell & gene therapies approved by the FDA. There are over 1,000 more in clinical trials.

2023’s Most Anticipated Media

All-In Podcast : , , ,
Notes By Drew Waterstreet

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